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Variance & Tilt — Managing Yourself

Educational content only — not financial/betting advice. Outcomes are uncertain; do not risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Summary

Streaks vs decision quality.

Rolling model metrics (Brier & LogLoss)
Rolling model metrics (illustrative). Lower is better.

Key takeaways

FAQ

Is this advice?

No. Educational only. Outcomes are uncertain.

How to size a unit?

0.5–2% of bankroll; consider partial Kelly 25–50%.

How to know if I have edge?

Track CLV vs the market close on a robust sample.