Model Calibration — Improve Prediction Accuracy

A prediction model is only useful if its probabilities reflect reality. Calibration ensures that when your model says 60%, the outcome really happens ~60% of the time.

Key takeaways

• Probability calibration: align model forecasts with real-world frequencies.
• Reliability diagrams: visualize whether your model is under- or overconfident.
• Sharpness vs calibration: a balance between confident predictions and accuracy.
• Why it matters: uncalibrated models mislead bankroll strategy.