Glossary

Quick, plain-English definitions for football analytics and betting. Educational only; no guarantees. Always follow local laws.

Accumulator (Acca) / Parlay

Combined bet of multiple selections; all must win for a payout.

Arbitrage

Opposing bets across books to lock a small theoretical profit. Practical constraints include limits, delays, and rules.

Asian Handicap

Handicap market that uses half/quarter lines (e.g., -0.25, +0.75) to reduce or remove the draw.

Bankroll

Total funds allocated for betting; manage to survive variance.

Closing Line Value (CLV)

How your price compares to the market’s final odds; a benchmark of long-term skill.

Decimal Odds

European odds format showing total return per 1 unit (including stake).

Edge

Your estimated advantage vs bookmaker price.

Expected Value (EV)

Average outcome of a bet over the long run; positive EV is the target.

Fractional Odds

UK format showing profit relative to stake (e.g., 5/2).

Implied Probability

Probability derived from odds after accounting for margin (overround).

In-Play / Live Betting

Placing bets while a match is ongoing; consider latency, momentum, and market delays.

Kelly Criterion

Stake sizing formula based on edge; fractional Kelly reduces volatility.

Line Shopping

Comparing odds across books to secure the best available price.

Moneyline / 1X2

Winner market (home/draw/away) or straight win in some regions.

Over/Under (Totals)

Bet on total goals relative to a line (e.g., 2.5).

Push

Stake returned when result equals the line (e.g., AH 0, total 2.0).

Return on Investment (ROI)

Profit relative to total staked; evaluate over a large sample.

Stake

Amount placed on a selection; tie to bankroll rules.

Value Bet

When true probability exceeds the implied probability from odds.

Variance

Natural randomness causing short-term swings independent of edge.

xG (Expected Goals)

Model estimate of chance quality based on shot location/type and context.

xGA

Expected goals against; conceded chance quality.

xPoints (xPts)

Expected points calculated from chance quality rather than final score.