xG vs Goals — Interpreting Football Performance

Goals win matches, but xG tells us how sustainable those results are. Understanding the gap between expected goals and actual goals reveals whether a team’s success is built on skill or luck.

Key takeaways

• Goals: reflect final outcomes, but can be influenced by luck and variance.
• xG: measures chance quality and underlying performance.
• Divergence: big gaps between xG and goals often signal regression.
• Best practice: use both stats for a complete picture of team strength.